How Rafael Nadal Has Been More Unlucky Than Unskilled For Having Below...

Rafael Nadal will be missing out on the ATP Finals for the second time in 3 years. He will arguably be the biggest name not participating who could be talked about the most. This is despite the fact that Nadal has a poor record in the tournament, having never won it. It remains debatable whether the Spaniard’s skill has anything to do with it or is it any other factor.

On one hand, Rafael Nadal has made a name for himself as a clay court specialist who managed to adapt to other surfaces and win Grand Slams as well as other big titles. But there is no doubt that Nadal relies more on the external conditions handed to him to capitalize on, such as wind speed, humidity, the size of the court, bounce of the surface etc. So the one surface which does not allow the 22-time Grand Slam champion to play his best game is the indoors hard court one.

On the indoors surface, it is all about having a powerful serve and more of a baseline game with clean groundstrokes. As a result, someone who is more of a clay court player, will find it difficult to adjust often to the fast game required indoors. But even those who are not necessarily clay court specialists haven’t won the ATP Finals ever. It is not a surprise that apart from Rafael Nadal, other Grand Slam champions such as Stan Wawrinka, Jim Courier, Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic and Rod Laver are also on this list.

So is it fortune then that too plays a role even if the player is as brave as Rafael Nadal? Perhaps as like in life, one needs luck in sport and some things are in the hands of an uncontrollable factor called destiny. In Nadal’s case, this seems to ring truer than just his skill.

In his first two tournaments in 2006 and 2007, Rafael Nadal beat the likes of Nikolay Davydenko, Tommy Robredo, Novak Djokovic and Richard Gasquet. The Spaniard only came up short against his then biggest rival, Roger Federer in both the years’ semifinals. Although 2009 was arguably his worst year at the tournament, he rebounded in the 2010 season dominated by him to make it to his first final of the ATP Finals. Nadal beat Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, Andy Roddick and in the semifinals, Andy Murray. However, he again fell to Federer in the final.

The format of the ATP Finals is so punishing, so much that if you have one bad day at the office, you can begin booking your flight tickets back home. Rafael Nadal in 2011 must have felt that way for sure, falling agonisingly short against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in a 3-set thriller. The Spaniard did beat Mardy Fish but losing once again to Roger Federer, was the final nail in the coffin for him.

In 2013, which was another milestone season for Rafael Nadal, he won 4 matches on the trot and even managed to break the Federer wall for the first time in the ATP Finals, that too in a semi-final. However, as per his fans, pundits and neutrals, Nadal went on to have an off day which was in the making perhaps, losing to Djokovic in the final.

Come 2015 and Rafael Nadal had an opportunity to end a Grand Slam-less season in style, winning all his round-robin matches. But again, it was the then unstoppable force, Novak Djokovic who trumped him in the semifinals. Many believe though that Nadal’s best chance to win the ATP Finals was in 2019 when he bounced back again to win the French Open and US Open that season. Unfortunately though, his straight sets loss to Alexender Zverev in the round robin stage proved very costly for him.

Rafael Nadal mesmerized fans that season by registering comeback victories against youngsters, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev. It was 2 wins to 1 loss for 3 players in that group. However, since Tsitsipas and Zverev had better set win-loss percentages and game win-loss percentages than Nadal, they were the two to qualify for the semifinals.

In 2020, the reigning French Open champion, Nadal once again won 2 matches and lost 1 in the round robin stage. But Medvedev took his revenge from the previous year’s loss to post a comeback win of his own in the semifinals against the Spaniard. To add salt to injury, the Russian went on to win the title, making him fall agonisingly short again.

Rafael Nadal would probably rue his 2022 performance the most. He came into the tournament as the top seed and having a season of a lifetime for a 36-year-old, winning the Australian Open and French Open back-to-back with winning streaks and multiple titles like none other. But Nadal was nowhere at his best in Turin, losing to Taylor Fritz and Felix Augur-Aliassime in his first 2 matches itself to be knocked out. His win against his protege, Casper Ruud was just mere consolation. That overall performance could not be attributed to just poor fortune.