Ja Morant out for season: What his shoulder surgery means for Memphis

Monday’s announcement that Memphis Grizzlies superstar Ja Morant will undergo season-ending surgery on his right shoulder completes a turbulent stretch for one of the NBA’s brightest young stars.

The 24-year-old entered the 2023-24 season with a 25-game NBA suspension for brandishing a firearm on social media. (Morant served an eight-game NBA suspension last season for a similar offense.)

Morant returned to the Grizzlies on Dec. 19, joining a 6-19 squad already missing center Steven Adams (knee) and Brandon Clarke (Achilles). Morant gave the team an instant jolt, leading Memphis to six wins in the nine games he played and averaging 25.1 points and 8.1 assists over the span.

The injury essentially means Morant can’t accomplish what was already going to be an uphill battle this season: dragging the Grizzlies out of a steep hole — partly of his own making — and into the postseason or play-in tournament.

Such a feat would’ve helped Morant reestablish his place as one of the future faces of the NBA — a position of even greater prominence once the Los Angeles Lakers’ LeBron James and the Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry retire in coming years.

Morant’s absence not only eliminates a potential heroic effort to lift a struggling and short-handed team but ensures that Memphis will end up in the lottery after consecutive seasons of finishing as the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

In all, the injury all but guarantees this will be a lost season for Morant and the Grizzlies, with a reach that could expand beyond Memphis, influencing the weeks leading to the NBA’s Feb. 8 trade deadline and free agency this summer.

Memphis’ silver lining: Adding a lottery pick to an elite young roster
From the Grizzlies’ perspective, the timing of this injury could have been much worse. Although Memphis’ 6-3 record in the nine games Morant played this season offered hope of a run at the play-in tournament, that flattered how the Grizzlies performed with him in the lineup.

Since Morant’s brief stint included as many losses by double figures as wins (two each, including a 31-point drubbing by the Sacramento Kings at home), Memphis actually performed at about a .500 level with Morant available. It’s unlikely that would have been enough for a team that is still 4½ games back of the 10th and final play-in spot in the West, needing to jump three teams ahead of it in the standings to get there.

Given how Morant’s absence during his suspension was exacerbated by the injuries that hit the rest of the roster over the season’s first two months, it’s possible Memphis will be better than its 7-20 (.259) record this season without him. Still, the Grizzlies are currently sixth in the lottery standings and unlikely to fall behind any of the teams that currently sport better records, all of which have won at least 40% of their games thus far.

The silver lining, then, will be Memphis’ highest draft pick since taking Morant at No. 2 in 2019. The Grizzlies’ rapid ascension into playoff contenders meant they needed to trade up to No. 10 in 2021 to add a third lottery pick (Ziaire Williams, who hasn’t yet developed as they hoped) to their core of Morant and 2018 No. 4 pick Jaren Jackson Jr.

Early in Morant’s career, Memphis was able to compensate by hitting on late picks, nabbing contributors Santi Aldama (No. 30), Clarke (No. 21), Xavier Tillman Sr. (No. 35) and core starter Desmond Bane (No. 30) outside the lottery. That success has dried up lately. Aldama is the only one of the four Grizzlies’ first-round picks in 2021 and 2022 who has rated better than replacement level this season by my wins above replacement player metric. Second-round pick Vince Williams Jr. has surpassed first-rounders Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and David Roddy in the team’s rotation.

With Memphis heading into the luxury tax when Bane’s extension kicks in next season, as Bobby details below, a lottery pick might be the Grizzlies’ best opportunity to add another contributor heading into Morant’s prime.