Max Verstappen Is Unstoppable. Is That Hurting F1 With New aids and...

Formula One has enjoyed unprecedented growth in the United States over the past five years thanks in large part to the immense popularity of the Netflix series Drive to Survive. But the historic gains in the key international market appear, at least in the short term, to be threatened by the dominance of Red Bull driver Max Verstappen.

Ahead of Sunday’s Miami Grand Prix, the first race of the North American swing, there is consternation within the sport that Verstappen’s stranglehold on the competition could jeopardize F1’s hard-fought expansion of its U.S. fan base.

The Dutchman has secured the drivers’ title for the past three years, including winning 19 of the 22 races last year to wrap up the championship—with six grands prix to spare. Even at this early stage in the 2024 season, it would be a major surprise if he does not win another title: Verstappen just became the first driver since Mika Häkkinen in 1999 to start a campaign with five successive pole positions, and Verstappen has already won four of those races.

“We are seeing more dominance than ever, so it is never going to be the best to watch, and the only exciting races have been the ones that Max is not in,” McLaren driver Lando Norris bluntly said last month. When asked whether Verstappen’s run is proving a turnoff for fans, Norris replied: “Of course it is going to be. There is no way you can say it won’t be.”

Front Office Sports spoke to a number of key figures within F1 to discuss what impact Verstappen’s dominance is having on the quest to keep new American fans engaged.

The U.S. has long been seen as a vital growth market for F1’s owners, Liberty Media. The introduction of new races in Miami and Las Vegas has largely been a success, with massive viewership increases on ESPN and accompanying heightened cultural relevance with A-listers such as Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, and LeBron James attending races.

But there have been signs that the global series has hit some speed bumps in the States.

Last year, ESPN enjoyed its second-most-watched F1 season on U.S. television, generating an average of 1.11 million viewers across ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC—but that marked an 8% drop from the 2022 average of 1.21 million on the same Disney-owned channels.

Meanwhile, F1 suffered a dramatic decline in social media mentions and growth last year, according to the London-based social intelligence group Buzz Radar. Per a report titled Have We Reached Peak F1 Popularity? mentions of F1 were down 70.2% in the first five months of 2023 compared to the same period in ’22, with new followers down 46.29% and social reach down 64.10%.

At this early stage of the 2024 season, viewership on ESPN in the U.S. is trending slightly downward from last year: According to figures provided by ESPN, the network’s telecasts through five races are averaging 728,000 viewers, down from 1.1 million average viewers for the full ’23 season.

The season-opening race in Bahrain dipped from 1.3 million viewers in 2023 to 1.12 million viewers, while the Saudi Arabian GP average audience dropped from 1.52 million to 920,000, and the Australian GP suffered a slight decline from 556,000 to 541,000 viewers. (On a positive note, Japanese GP viewership rose from 478,000 to 484,000, while the Chinese GP recorded 626,000 viewers, representing a huge spike from the 268,000 average audience the last time the race was held, in 2019.)

“This year, we had a little bit of a challenge coming out of the gate with a few overnight races right at the start of the season,” Tim Bunnell, a senior vice president of programming at ESPN, tells FOS.

“The first two races of the season were on a Saturday, which is unusual, for reasons which were beyond our control. But we’re starting to see that turn. We actually had a very good performance at the Chinese GP. We were up 140% over the previous year [it was held].”

It is difficult to quantify exactly how much of a role Verstappen’s dominance has played in the slight downswing in ESPN viewership, but it has been a factor in keeping viewers engaged.

“What we’re seeing with our ratings is that people are still tuning in, but they’re not staying as long because Max may have the race sewn up halfway through,” Bunnell says.

“But I think this level of excellence is a story in itself. People can get beyond the need for a competitive circuit when they are seeing greatness like this. We’d love it to be more competitive, but that’s not something that’s in our control.”