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Kyle Larson saw his NASCAR Cup Series championship odds shorten by a massive amount following his Championship 4-clinching victory at Phoenix Raceway.
Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson entered the round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway as the second favorite to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship. He was listed at +350 behind teammate William Byron at +330.
But after winning the round of 8 opener to become the first driver to lock himself into the Championship 4 for the second time in the last three years, the 2021 champion became the favorite to win his second title.
At the end of the day, regardless of who won the South Point 400, the winner was likely to become the title favorite.
On paper, that driver would have a 25% chance to win the title, as opposed to a 12.5% chance (theoretically only a 10.71% chance, with just three Championship 4 spots still available).
But Larson’s odds shortened all the way to +160 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is offering fans an instant $200 just for betting $5 on any driver. Is the change too drastic?
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He is the only driver locked into in the Championship 4, thus meaning his results throughout the rest of the round of 8 don’t matter for him.
Plus, he has had the speed to be the favorite all year long; he leads the series in laps led with 1,031. It’s the consistency and execution that has been lacking, but now he has gotten to where he wants to be. He could finish 36th in the next two races and it wouldn’t matter.
But +160 implies a 1/2.6 chance (just under 40%), and while Larson is the only driver locked in at this point, there are going to be four Championship 4 drivers, no matter who they are. At some point, three other drivers are going to see their odds shorten, and typically, the title favorite heading into the Championship 4 is listed in the +200 to +220 range.
