Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz to crash out as Alexander Zverev fights back

The second ATP Masters 1000 clay court tournament of the season is underway in Madrid and the storylines set to emerge from the extended tournament will dominate the tennis agenda for the next two weeks.

This will be the final big tournament before world No 1 Jannik Sinner returns from his doping suspension and the absence of the Italian opens the door for his big rivals to eat into his lead in the world rankings.

All eyes will be on Carlos Alcaraz as he ponders whether to play in Madrid after picking up an adductor injury in his Barcelona Open final defeat against Holger Rune on Sunday, while top seed Alexander Zverev will arrive in Madrid with his confidence boosted by a big win in the ATP 500 tournament in Munich.

Novak Djokovic will play in Madrid for the first time since 2022 and only the second time since 2019, with defending champion Andrey Rublev facing some big pressure as he looks to defend the 1,000 points he collected from this tournament last year and retain his place in the top 10 of the ATP Rankings.

Here are some predictions for this year’s Madrid Masters:

Novak Djokovic struggles to continue

Novak Djokovic’s increased schedule is something of a mystery and he has arrived in Madrid with his coach Andy Murray as he chases his 100th career title once again.

Djokovic stated time and again last year that he wanted to spend time with his family rather than plan in ATP Tour events, as he was focused only on playing in Grand Slam tournaments.

That stance has shifted dramatically this season, with his eagerness to spend time with his family replaced by a schedule that is essentially matching all the top players in the game.

This Serbian legend will toast his 38th birthday next month, with his presence in Madrid confirming he has the appetite to play more in 2025, but his results have not always been there.

He lost in his first match in Monte Carlo against Alejandro Tabilo amid what he admitted was a ‘horrible’ performance, but time away from the court as he counts down to the French Open was not an option.

Verdict: Djokovic could play Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals, but that seems like a long shot. His run to the Miami Open final was an outlier as Djokovic’s form in regular ATP Tour events has been poor and he will crash out early in Madrid.